Coronavirus scenarios 2021. To outline possible scenarios there is no need to consult prophecies of the past. Instead, it is important to focus on economic, social, and geopolitical analyses.
Is it going to be another horrible year?
2020 was certainly not a happy year.
The world has been caught, unprepared, by a now famous global pandemic.
A virus is an invisible enemy. It has turned our lives upside down.
It is almost impossible to list all the events and consequences of this ominous year.
Death, economic decline, social upheaval, the default of entire nations, migration, restrictions on freedom and uncertainty about the future.
These are just a few of the issues that have affected the past year. But turning the page, what will the year that has just begun look like?
No one can really predict with certainty something that has yet to happen. However, we can make assumptions, without transcending into the “paranormal”, but analysing past and present events.
Will 2021 Be Another Horrible Year?
A question that accompanies the thoughts and fears of many.
We should not be pessimistic, but neither should we be careless, and the forecasts are not the best. Coronavirus scenarios 2021 are not the best.
It is well known that several pharmaceutical companies have started distributing various vaccines against Covid-19 around the world. However, given the urgency of the situation and the lack of time, the data on efficacy over time, their functioning in the face of mutations of the virus, their potential side effects are still not fully clear.
Leaving aside these factors, for which it is very difficult to assess and which should be left to the experts in the field, we must once again look at the hard facts. Given that vaccines work, that they are effective and long-lasting, there is an undeniable problem: “the timing of distribution.”
It is difficult to define in the world how many people have lost their jobs or how many more will lose their jobs in the time to come. Many states that had based their economies on tourism are experiencing great hardship due to travel restrictions. Some of the people living in these states have not received and are not receiving any economic support.
OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) statistics show a strong economic decline in many countries. There are no magic solutions or economic injections that can change this trend, at least in the short term. The poverty caused by Covid is real and tangible.
Another undeniable fact is the increase in the levels of stress with which humanity must and will have to cope as a result of the protracted crisis. This could lead to an increase in suicides.
These data can be consulted and monitored directly from the WHO (World Health Organization) website. Prolonged stress also has negative effects on the immune system and could result in the gradual emergence of new diseases which, together with the already difficult health battle we are fighting, could result in new “disasters”.
Another serious problem linked to high levels of stress and depression is the increase in the use of alcohol and drugs, which undoubtedly leads to further adverse effects on public health. The worsening of the situation could also lead to an increase in crime.
Unemployment, loss of hope and mere survival often result in the search for “new alternatives.”
Things could get even worse in 2021
The worsening situation could push some States to adopt more restrictive measures to try to contain the situation. We have already sadly seen restrictions on freedom of expression in 2020, even in Nations that have made this fundamental principle their bastion.
The restrictive and data surveillance policies that have resulted in bans, blackouts, acquisition of sensitive and protected data, adopted by many multinational word wide web companies and some broadcasters, are there for all to see. Although many States have disagreed with this trend, such procedures in an increasingly unpredictable world may soon become the norm.
The now familiar “Chinese model” could become a plausible solution for many.
Further global problems could also arise from reduced resource production and trade. Sporadic were already in the past year the episodes in this direction. However, if the crisis were to continue for a long time, these issues could become dominant, as well as some increase in the prices of basic survival goods (due to their scarcity).
It should be stressed that not all member States would be able to meet their domestic needs in such a situation. The trend of this important factor can always be consulted in the research produced by the World Bank.
What could be the political and geopolitical consequences of the prolonged crisis?
In an explosive situation such as the one we seem to be facing, it is very easy to set off a fuse.
Driven by desperation and the lack of alternatives new harmful dark figures could arise on the international scene. Many might see in despots’ plausible solutions to the problem.
Some cornered States may decide to go in search of “new resources”, triggering conflicts. Others may implode under the weight of popular protests. The situation is so uncertain that defining scenarios is very complex, but it is easy to see that the danger of the above is directly proportional to the prolongation of the crisis.
If history has taught us anything, it is that this has always been the perfect recipe for disaster.
On the other hand, the planet is nothing more than a container, with limited resources, in which we all live. A paradoxically simple concept but very difficult to conceive for most of its inhabitants.
Is humanity on the brink of extinction?
Humankind has always faced difficult moments, cycles of renewal, even if marked by great efforts and sacrifices, even though in recent years, and especially in the wealthiest countries, this simple historical concept has been forgotten.
The underlying problem is not this virus, one of the many billions of viruses or other problems that we might face from one day to the next, but how we deal with the problems.
Humanity will be on the perennial cusp of the abyss until it succeeds in acting together, to become aware of its true being and its real place in the boundless universe.
The years to come will not be easy, changes are always made through great sacrifices.
It is important to return to the awareness that life is not an eternal game. We try to explain to children that life is not just about pleasure, but we still don’t know how to live up to our teachings.
The earth, existence, being, is one with that which surrounds us and of which we are a part and over which we cannot stand. We are guests and not masters of this planet.
This pandemic is just one of the many problems we still need to face.
One thing is clear, we will never overcome them without the knowledge that humanity has been placed before a challenge that affects everyone.
Coming out divided once again from a global problem, this is the one that will lead us sooner or later, inevitably, to extinction.
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