Post Coronavirus Geopolitical Balance

The Coronavirus pandemic has accelerated the geopolitics of the twenty-first century.

The new Coronavirus global pandemic has accelerated the geopolitics of the twenty-first century: Covid-19 has infected a large part of the world population and upset all the internal and external balances of nations.

Although China has been accused by many as the responsible nation of spreading this plague on the planet, it nevertheless had the opportunity to demonstrate its mature ability to face a global crisis that not even a giant like the US has yet managed to give. a clear and stable response. The clear opportunity arose for China, which has never hidden its long-term geopolitical goals, to discredit the United States and promote its global image as the world’s second largest economy after Russia. And precisely regarding the latter nation, China’s growing economic and military power, make it likely that “the trajectories of these nations will eventually overlap”. This is important for geopolitics, because it signals the end of the United States as the dominant global hegemon.

Moreover, despite the focus on the epidemic that has been more concentrated on China, Russia, Europe and the United States, the virus now spread all over the world, has created immense problems in North Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. Changes that are currently difficult to predict, in both developed and developing countries, risk being more complex and dangerous than those we are used to. However, depending on how the world responds to this looming challenge, this storm, we may also see a strengthening of our society.

The pandemic is not over yet, and the new geopolitics already reflects an increasingly complex and fragmented global landscape, in which uncertainty dominates a much more dangerous world, in which a long global crisis could arise. Issues of global concern, such as global affairs, the future of world trade, global security, economic development, human rights, global environment, post-pandemic economic reconstruction and the new challenge to climate change, are all problems on the table, accelerated by the current crisis.

Many are betting that the United States will no longer be a dominant world power and that China will take their place. Still others believe that the pandemic will reinforce the fundamental characteristics of today’s geopolitics, first by fragmenting and then accelerating the recomposition of the current global order. Still others believe that the internal weakening of the United States, Russia, China and other emerging economies will lead to a new World Order, necessary to restore the functioning of corporate dynamics.

It is also important to keep in mind, for those who bet on China, that it will not be easy for it to rebuild its damaged image on an international level. It will have to face the fact that its lack of transparency has allowed the virus to spread rapidly around the world, and this is a fact, not a guess.

The worst scenario, on the other hand, is an open armed conflict resulting from the growing geopolitical tensions between the various international players. But the real risk, almost inevitable, is that of a long, prolonged economic crisis, which could lead to an increasingly anarchic world, in which everyone is against everyone. A catastrophic scenario, with scattered social unrest and no coordination between the various nations. A hypothesis to be avoided at all costs.

Global crises, such as this Virus is representing, should lead us to be even more united as humanity to fight together towards the new challenges that the future holds and that await us with mathematical precision. This is the only certainty we have in an ocean of uncertain hypotheses.

Adriano Margarone

for Insider Release

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